Austin Forum | Why Pundits and Experts Often Get It Wrong

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Agenda

​7:15 - 8:30 p.m. Discussion

Event Summary

Ever wonder why the bold predictions from experts on TV and in the news so often miss the mark? From stock market forecasts to political outcomes, confident predictions abound, yet our future remains stubbornly unpredictable.

Join the Austin Forum for a fascinating book discussion on "Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail—and Why We Believe Them Anyway" by Dan Gardner. Craig Wheeler, author of “The Path to Singularity” and a professor emeritus of astronomy, will help us dive into the psychology behind our desire for certainty and explore Gardner's compelling argument that the most confident "expert" pundits are often the most likely to be wrong. 

This is a conversation about critical thinking in an age of information overload. We'll discuss:

• Why our brains are wired to trust confident-sounding predictions, even when they're baseless.

• How to distinguish between genuine expertise and confident "hedgehogs" who oversimplify complex issues.

• The impact of failed predictions on our society, from financial markets to public policy.

As we approach the start of a new year, we’re all going to hear about predictions for 2026—including in our own Austin Forum event in January! After this discussion we will all be more careful about making predictions and knowing how to assess predictions made by others. It should make for some great holiday conversations with family, too. ;-)

Whether you've read the book cover-to-cover or are just intrigued by the topic, you're welcome to join the discussion. Come share your thoughts on how we can all become smarter consumers of information and make better decisions in an uncertain world.